Test a business idea with evidence before polishing the pitch

A polished pitch can make an assumption feel proven. Market research reverses that order: write down the assumptions first, then look for evidence that could change your decision. Begin with a specific customer and problem. “Small businesses need analytics” is too broad to test. “Independent retailers cannot see which repeat customers respond to email offers” is narrow enough to investigate. Identify how those people solve the problem today, including manual work and doing nothing. Use existing evidence for scale and context: public statistics, industry data, search patterns, competitor pricing, and regulatory constraints. Then use direct research for behavior: interviews, observations, surveys, or a small prototype. Ask about past actions rather than hypothetical enthusiasm. “Tell me about the last time this happened” produces stronger evidence than “Would you use this?” Keep a decision record with five fields: assumption, evidence, source, decision, and next test. Include contradictory findings. The goal is not to accumulate support for the original idea; it is to reduce the cost of being wrong. The U.S. Small Business Administration recommends examining demand, market size, location, saturation, pricing, and competing alternatives. Its business planning guidance also treats the plan as a roadmap that should fit the needs of the business rather than a fixed presentation format. Finish with a threshold: what evidence would justify continuing, changing the audience, revising the offer, or stopping? A clear threshold turns research into a decision instead of an endless collection of interesting facts. Sources U.S. SBA: Market research and competitive analysis https://www.sba.gov/business guide/plan your business/market research competitive analysis U.S. SBA: Write your business plan https://www.sba.gov/business guide/plan your business/write your business plan